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| Tue.9.8.2009 | Why Consumer Spending Is More Resilient Than Most Realize |
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| Wed.9.2.2009 | Why Ben Stein Was Fired By The New York Times |
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Why Consumer Spending Is More Resilient Than Most Realize Numerous pundits say that consumers can't spend because they are overburdened with debt or out of work. Just as income earned and taxes paid are concentrated among the wealthiest, so too is spending. Government spending figures show this, although the data isn't terribly comprehensive since it's based upon voluntary consumer surveys. The government collects spending data showing that the 6.8 percent of households with annual incomes of $150,000 or more account for 17.1 percent of all spending. Thus, higher-income households account for more than 2.5 times as much spending as you would expect, given the sheer numbers of households they represent. Unfortunately, the government data doesn't show how really high income households spend their money. I suspect this data is sketchy at best, since the wealthiest generally are quite private about their financial details and unlikely to provide much in a voluntary government spending survey. Take the case of a low- to moderate-income family that was living beyond its means. We've certainly been led to believe that such families' spending was artificially propping up and inflating the economy during the good economic times. There's certainly some truth to the fact that some consumers were saving little or no money. Then, something negative causes the family to reach the breaking point. It could be an adjustable-rate mortgage that has a substantial increase in interest rate and payment, being laid off from a job or a major illness that leads to too many out-of-pocket expenses. These events can cause a family to be swamped with debt and push them into personal bankruptcy and foreclosure. But, guess what? Families enduring this pain emerge much financially stronger. Consumer debt is discharged in personal bankruptcy (Chapter 7) and losing a home to foreclosure gets the family out from under an unaffordable mortgage. Eliminating or restructuring debt can free up a significant portion of a family's monthly cash flow. That's a reason why consumer spending is proving its resiliency again. I'm not suggesting that a families emerging from bankruptcy and foreclosure don't learn from the experience and modify their behaviors. The national savings rate has increased, but also remember that personal habits and money personalities are hard to change. Any good financial planner knows that the hard part in working with clients isn't proposing a plan and solutions. The hardest part is getting a client to change what he or she is doing. Now let's consider a household at the other end of the spectrum — the high-income earner. Here's an example of a partner I know in a medium-size consulting firm. He makes well over $1 million annually and has a net worth well in excess of $10 million dollars. His family lives in a large home without a mortgage, takes multiple vacations annually, eats out often and buys things when they want. During the economic downturn, this family hasn't changed their spending or financial habits at all. The level of spending that this family does make some sense since the family's annual income and financial assets dwarf their annual spending. His business is off because of the recession, but not by a substantial amount (15 percent) and is now rebounding. Another high-income family I know in similar circumstances has suffered a steeper drop in income (about 50 percent) but their spending hasn't dropped nearly as much as their annual income. There are some reasons for this. First, many spending commitments are locked in place and a matter of habit and expectations — cars, house, country-club membership for golf and tennis, etc. If you have kids, you don't suddenly wake up one day tired of spending on them and drop them off at the orphanage! One thing many folks don't realize about the highest-income earners is that most have substantial assets and, while they spend a lot, they spend a lot less than they typically earn each year. So, when their income sags, they are able to keep their commitments and keep spending. There are exceptions, of course, but the bulk of the spending in the economy is driven by the highest-income earners and those with substantial assets. These people generally understand the fluctuating nature of their incomes and assets and spread their spending out over time. And that's another major reason why spending is more resilient than many realize during and after a recession. Write Eric Tyson, author of "Investing for Dummies" and "Personal Finance for Dummies" (Wiley) via e-mail: eric@erictyson.com. © 2009 Eric Tyson Distributed by King Features Syndicate Inc. |